Inventory for Crofton, Odenton, Gambrills at 5-Year Low

ip_btn3The start of a new year provides a great opportunity to step back and evaluate the key criteria that could predict how the real estate market will perform in the upcoming year. As we sit in the first couple weeks of 2013 looking back at the last 5 years, we are looking at inventory levels at their absolute lowest point (Based on All Home Types Since December 2007) for all of Crofton, Odenton and Gambrills. Let’s look at the data.

CROFTON DATA:
This first graph captures the tally of homes actively for sale in Crofton, broken down by All Homes and more specifically Detached or Single Family homes.

Click Here For a List of All Homes Listed for Sale in Crofton

Click Here for a List of Detached, or Single Family Homes in Crofton

ODENTON DATA:
The graph below shows the number of homes actively for sale in Odenton, broken down by All Homes and more specifically Detached or Single Family homes.

Click Here For a List of All Homes Listed for Sale in Odenton

Click Here For a List of Detached, or Single Family Homes in Odenton

GAMBRILLS DATA:
This final graph shows the number of homes actively for sale in Gambrills, broken down by All Homes and more specifically Detached or Single Family homes.

Click Here For a List of All Homes Listed for Sale in Gambrills

Click Here For a List of Detached, or Single Family Homes in Gambrills

While the factor of lowerd supply is a benefit to home sellers, and moves the market into a more balanced positiion than the buyer market we have seen over the past 4 years, it doesn’t shift directly into a sellers market. Another factor at play that is difficult if not impossible to quantify is the level of “potential inventory”. By this we mean homeowners who would like to sell, but are not currently on the market, so not counted in the data supplied. This may reflect homeowners who have tried to sell in the recent past but could not and so either rented their homes or stayed where they were, or homeowners who held back and didnt list their homes for sale due to the buyers market, and once these homeowners sense a shift in the market we may see an increase in the available homes, and thus bring these figures more into balance
We’d love to hear your feedback, what do you think this data means? Is it a good time to sell? Is it a good time to buy?

Monthly Market Update for Crofton, Odenton and Gambrills



More Details on Wednesday’s School Board Meeting

On Friday the county released this press release with more details on Wednesday’s meeting to include a complete agenda.  Click on the link below to view the press release and agenda.

Board Meeting 12:5

Crofton School Redistricting Topic at Next School Board Meeting

Next Wednesday, December 5th, the Anne Arundel County School board will meet again to discuss redistricting Crofton Schools.  The meeting is scheduled for 10:00AM at 2644 Riva Road, Annapolis, MD.  This meeting is the next step in the redistricting process that began with a Crofton redistricting committee approving a plan to move 113 students from Nantucket Elementary to Crofton Meadows Elementary beginning in the 2014 school year as well as moving 59 students from Nantucket Elementary to Crofton Elementary in the 2015 school year.  Following this approval the plan was submitted to Superintendent Dr. Kevin Maxwell who will submit his plan to the board at next Wednesdays meeting.  The board will then have to vote on the plan no later than next April.  Though not part of the redistricting plan, the Crofton Committee also made an ancillary recommendation requesting funds for a future Crofton High School.  For more information on the redistricting plan please see this Crofton Patch Article written by Tim Lemke.

Piney Orchard/Chapel Grove High School Map-Arundel HS

Continuing our discussion on the local school boundaries the attached map shows most of the rest of the Arundel High School zone.  This area includes much of  Gambrills and Odenton, to include Piney Orchard and Chapel Grove.  While these maps serve as a helpful guide, it is very important to confirm any information gleaned from these maps with the Anne Arundel County Public School System.  They can be reached at 410-222-5000 or go to their website: http://www.aacps.org

Mortgage Interest Rates Keep Getting Better and Better

While there isn’t much good news coming out of Washington as “serious” negotiations begin on avoiding the Fiscal Cliff, one bright spot seems to be interest rates. CNNMoney reports the average for a 30 year fixed rate loan has dropped to 3.31%, while rates for the average 15 year fixed rate loan fell to 2.63%.

CNNMoney Article

Boundaries For Crofton High Schools- Arundel and South River

When starting the home buying process, there are many factors to consider.  For many buyers one of the first questions that has to be answered is “Where will my kids go to school?”  For  Crofton residents and people looking to move to the area, determining this answer requires a little research.  Knowing exactly where the school boundaries are for each elementary, middle and high school is very important.  To help with a visual understanding of where these boundaries are, we’ve provided a couple maps showing where the boundaries are for Arundel Senior High and South River Senior High.  While these maps serve as a helpful guide, it is very important to confirm any information gleaned from these maps with the Anne Arundel County Public School System.  They can be reached at 410-222-5000 or go to their website: http://www.aacps.org

Arundel HS Map

 

South River HS Map

 


Absorption Rate: Crofton, MD, 21114

Timing the market is a key concern that both buyers and sellers share. One of the most important tools for determining the right time to buy or sell is calculating the absorption rate for your given market area. According to  Leslie Monaco on Realtor.com, absorption rate= the rate at which homes are selling in a specific area. The formula needed to calculate this rate is:

NUMBER OF ACTIVE LISTINGS X THE RATE OF HOME SALES = ABSORPTION RATE

For a concrete example lets look at the Crofton market year to date. From January 1-October 31 here are the factors involved:

 

# of homes sold= 296

Active Listings (As of Oct. 31)= 54

Time Frame: 304 Days

 

Before plugging our variables into the formula above we first have to determine the Rate at which homes have been sold in Crofton this year:

304 Days Divided by 296 Homes Sold = 1 home sold every 1.027 Days;

Therefore NUMBER OF ACTIVE LISTINGS (54) X RATE OF HOME SALES (1.027) = ABSORPTION RATE (55.458 DAYS OR 1.85 MONTHS)

 

Again, according to  Leslie Monaco a balanced real estate market will typically have an absorption rate of 5-7 months. With a rate of 1.85 months the Crofton market appears to favor sellers. However, there are other factors to consider before drawing such conclusions. These factors will be discussed at a later date.

http://www.realtor.com/blogs/2011/11/30/how-do-you-calculate-absorption-rate/

 

Monthly Market Update

Check back here every month on the 10th of the month for the most up-to-date real estate statistics in our area.

Team Surlis Blog

One of the features of our new website we are most excited about is the introduction of the Team Surlis Blog.  We’d love to be able to address issues that are pressing for homebuyers, home sellers, homeowners and residents in our community.  If you have any questions or issues you would like to see addressed by local real estate professionals please feel free to post your questions and comments.

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